For Variety VIP+ subscribers: Remember TV’s post-pandemic tanked ratings? Prepare for some déjà view off the backs of Hollywood’s dual strikes
, but other viewers will likely drop out at a higher rate. This will be a concern for networks and pay TV providers like Comcast, which has not seen a letup in the increase in YoY cancellation rates.
To quantify the immediate impact of strike-struck schedules, let’s assess what happened individually to the big four broadcast networks in 2020. Fox, whose schedule back then included the NFL’s “Thursday Night Football” as well as “WWE Smackdown” , did the best, with a YoY decline of just -10%. This was followed by CBS and ABC , with NBC seeing a tremendous fall of -30% for average primetime nightly viewership based on VIP+’s analysis.
It was even worse among 18-49s, the prime demographic coveted by advertisers. Bearing in mind these averages are not for live viewing or those watching within the same day as content airing but for, the specter of a repeat of losing up to a third of viewers will prove grim to execs. in the can no longer viable, schedules will see several reruns.
That benefits Fox and ABC the most, with zero and one rerun scheduled, respectively. CBS, however, may see cause for concern with seven reruns on the slate. One of these is “,” which undoubtedly will do well among older viewers who haven’t seen it. And with 47 episodes to run through, it will fill the single- and double-header slots on Sunday evenings for some time. But it will be the exception to the rule.
This all adds up to the strong probability that TV viewing declines will accelerate even more due to the strike than if 2023 had been a “normal” year. New viewing behaviors will be learned and not forgotten, and TV’s popularity as a first-point entertainment destination will continue to dwindle.
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