MLB odds, predictions, and picks for Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers on September 19. MLB free pick for Red Sox-Rangers.
I talked a lot about Eovaldi’s declining strikeout numbers, but I can’t get past the Red Sox’ awful 27.9% strikeout rate. It’s not like Eovaldi isn’t capable of hitting five strikeouts, he had done so in five of six starts before his poor four-start stretch from late August into September.
I like buying low on Eovaldi strikeouts, and I also like buying this offense against sliders. Houck throws them 37.1% of the time and really relies on it to get outs.is one of the best in baseball against the pitch and leads the way for the Rangers with a 2.00 run value against sliders. Should Houck opt to throw his sinker, Seager has a stunning 3.86 run value against that pitch as well.
Furthermore, while the expected stats would indicate that Houck has been slightly unfortunate, he still hasn’t exactly pitched very well. His hard-hit rate is up at 44.2% with an 8.5% walk rate. Sure, his barrel rate is low, but his xBA is right at the league average. That’s not going to work against a Rangers team which, as I’ve covered, hits sliders very well. It’s also a team that has one of the best offenses in baseball and has been hot over the last two weeks.
With that, I have to lean towards the Over here. It’s worth noting that 75% of the tickets wagered on the total have come in on the Over at DraftKings, and it accounts for 92% of the total handle.
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