Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BofA Securities economist Carlos Capistran sees a recession but not a housing crisis for Canada in 2023,
“Canada Year Ahead: Recession, not crisis. We expect GDP growth at 0.5% in 2023 after a 3.5% growth rate in 2022. We expect GDP growth to decelerate following high interest rates in Canada and in the US and weak US growth. We see downside risks to growth as the housing sector could contract more, but low unemployment, high oil prices and lower interest rates than in the US are buffers. We expect inflation to decelerate, but to remain above 3% in 2023.
“Nearly one year into this bear market, some have begun to scour the lists of the largest decliners for big discounts, failing to realize that those lists are dominated by prior market leaders for which the risk of failure was drastically underpriced. As the chart below clearly demonstrates, the biggest decliners in the first year of each of the last two bear markets were dominated by underperformers and failures.
“Not to dwell on the obvious, but it’s been a bad year for portfolios of most varieties. The traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds has been crunched on both sides, with the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury both still down double-digits on a total return basis this year. Going back to 1970, we haven’t seen such a uniform negative hit.
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