\u0022We are not going to increase the forecast model accuracy, but it can help better communicate the impact of the storm, and maybe can get some early alarm to…
But eight months later, Environment Canada and its scientists say there is still no timeline for when such a system might be operable.
“That will allow us to, I think, prepare more effectively. My expectation is, from what I’ve been told, that will be coming. Looking to be implemented at the beginning of January 2022,” he told a news conference on Nov. 22. The weather office said it is studying various rating scales to reflect the intensity of atmospheric rivers with a numeric value, but “there are no immediate plans to formally adopt such a scale operationally in the short term.”But Environment Canada said it is instead focused on analyzing the “relevance” of such a system for Canada and noted any new products must undergo rigorous evaluation and peer review to ensure validity and reliability before implementation.
“Climate models are indicating that severe storms are expected to become much more frequent in duration and more severe. This is one of the motivating factors behind our project because we are expecting that these atmospheric rivers are not going away and, if anything, they’re going to be more impactful in the future,” she said.Article content
Vingarzan added that, though a new ranking system would not increase accuracy, it would provide historical context to “identify its rarity and potential impacts.”
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