Rand holds above R17 against the dollar

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Rand holds above R17 against the dollar
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The rand threatened a sustained break above R17 against the dollar on Monday as it continues to take its cue from global factors.

TreasuryOne said in a morning note on Monday that the local unit weakened to R17.04 on Friday before ending the week at R16.99 as it continued to be one of the worst performing EM currencies. It warned that a break through the R17.05 level would open up the 17.20 level, but this will be dependent on the dollar testing parity against the euro.

Should Godongwana be sidelined just two months ahead of a budget update, the rand would likely extend a decline sparked by concerns about Federal Reserve tightening that has boosted the dollar, said George Glynos, the managing director and chief economist at ETM Analytics. It said that traders might be underpricing the risk. “How much of the political premium is priced in, with all that is going on worldwide, is difficult to say,” said Cristian Maggio, the London-based head of portfolio strategy at TD Securities.

“It is likely central bankers, including Fed Chair Powell, will remain hawkish in dealing with inflation albeit with a bit of caution creeping in given the emerging economic downturn,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Services.

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