Radical swings in Fed expectations can trigger $2k gold price, but washout could be 'vicious' - analysts gold economy
The gold market is attracting the safe-haven trade in a chaotic market environment amid growing fears of contagion from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. Markets are also reassessing interest rate hike expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on March 22.
Gold prices shot up to five-week highs after the SVB and Signature Bank shock and traded comfortably above the $1,900 an ounce level. And according to analysts, there is a lot more upside in the trade, but certain technical levels must be hit first. The flight to safety and rate hike expectations will remain in the driver's seat for the short term, Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible told Kitco News. The strategist is pricing in a rate hike pause but no rate cuts for this year.
Lusk is watching a close under $1,880 an ounce as a negative sign."What I'm looking for here is a close under $1,880. That could open the door to $1,840, and then we got a double bottom around that $1,812 level. Those are the technical levels I'm watching," he said. "The market basically resets its expectation for the interest rate policy. We were coming into the month with 80% saying 50 basis points. But today, at one point, it swung towards 60% for nothing. So these radical swings are going to continue to fuel volatility," he said.As the expectations around the Fed drive the market, gold's upside potential is clear. But if the narrative shifts, a selloff could be"vicious," Boutros pointed out.
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