For another politician it would signal the end of a political career. In Donald Trump’s case, the question is to what extent a prosecution will act as fuel for a movement that seemed to be flagging
have discretion when deciding which cases to bring. They must weigh the seriousness of the crime, the likelihood of securing conviction and the public interest in prosecuting. That last part is the most contentious. About half of the American public is very interested in nailing Mr Trump; the other half thinks that he is being victimised by prosecutors. That half will hardly see the decision to go ahead with this case as evidence that justice is impartial.
What, then, of the legal arguments? The specific charges against Mr Trump will be known only once he is arraigned, but the facts are as follows. In the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, Mr Trump’s lawyer arranged to pay an actress in pornographic films to keep quiet about an alleged fling which occurred a decade earlier, one year into Mr Trump’s marriage to his third wife. The hush-money was paid shortly before the 2016 presidential election and not made public.
Republicans might once have considered such behaviour disqualifying: a generation ago many of the people who now think Mr Trump is being unjustly persecuted argued enthusiastically for removing Bill Clinton from the White House office over an extra-marital affair. Some Democrats, though admittedly a dwindling number, manage to hold the inverse position: that while Mr Clinton’s impeachment was unjust, theBut ethics and hypocrisy will not be on trial in Manhattan.
That does not mean the case against Mr Trump is clear. Yes his lawyer, Michael Cohen, has already pleaded guilty to breaking campaign-finance rules. But Mr Trump’s team would presumably argue that any fault was Mr Cohen’s . Then there is the legal theory under which the case is likely to proceed. Labelling the payment in accounts as a legal expense, the other grounds for prosecution, is a misdemeanour.
Opponents of Mr Trump who dread the thought of him running for president again might, at this point, mention Al Capone’s tax arrangements. That is a bit unfair to Mr Trump, who is not taken to murdering rivals. It also misunderstands how the nominating process works. Were Mr Trump to be found guilty he could still run. Were he to be found innocent, he will claim that he was exonerated and add this to the sheet of charges he has beaten.
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