Powell signals that rate cut could be coming soon

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Powell signals that rate cut could be coming soon
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says that 'many' Fed officials believe a weakening global economy and rising trade tensions have strengthened the case for looser interest-rate policies.

FILE - In this June 19, 2019, file photo Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell concludes a news conference following a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington. On Wednesday, July 10, the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June meeting when it left rates unchanged.

Powell said that since Fed officials met last month, “uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook.” Meanwhile, inflation has fallen farther from the Fed’s target. Powell made no mention of the president’s criticism in his prepared testimony, but he did thank Congress for the “independence” it has given the central bank to operate.

In his testimony, Powell said the economy has performed “reasonably well” over the first half of the year. But he noted that “crosscurrents, such as trade tensions and concerns about global growth, have been weighing on economic activity and the outlook.” Investors, as tracked by the CME Group, have assigned a 100% likelihood to a rate cut when the Fed meets in three weeks. Until very recently, the chance of a modest quarter-point cut was put at 70% and a steep half-point cut at 30%.

And last week the government reported that after a tepid job gain in May, U.S. employers sharply stepped up their hiring in June, an indication of the economy’s durability.

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