A big question on investors’ minds as oil prices soared this year is what happened to the loonie?
The rise of the U.S. as an energy powerhouse and lower energy investment in Canada has dulled, but not completely erased, the link between the Canadian dollar and oil prices, say TD economists Beata Caranci and James Orlando in a recent note.The loonie has held its own against other currencies, up 4% this year and 17% over the past six years. It has also outperformed other “commodity currencies.
But they see a 5% upside for the Canadian dollar — though they add the next few months will be key to determining how much of that gap can be closed. But Canada also has advantages, namely a more robust job market, a mortgage stress test and consumers with higher savings.
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