Why Canadians might be stuck with high food prices for good
Oxford sees global food prices remaining 25 per cent higher than during the pre-pandemic decade.Both short-term and long-term forces are at work. In the short term, fertilizer prices still remain higher than before the pandemic, said Oxford economist Diego Cacciapuoti. And as farmers cut back on fertilizer, crop yields will drop.present another challenge. When prices spiked, many countries put in place tariffs and export bans to protect their food security.
By 2050 cereals prices are expected to increase 7.6 per cent just on climate risks alone, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cacciapuoti said, “though risks are clearly skewed to the upside, with adverse climate events that may create considerable future price uncertainty.” In a recent example, RBC points to record low livestock herd sizes reported in Canada and the United States, after drought raised the costs of cattle feed.
A measure to combat climate change, the promotion of greener biofuels, will also put pressure on food prices. “We anticipate demand for biofuels to remain much higher than historical averages,” said Cacciapuoti. As farmers are incentivized to devote more acreage to the soybeans and maize used to make biofuels, they will devote fewer to wheat.
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