Average Canadian home prices are forecast to fall 21 per cent from the peak retracing half of the giant upswing during the pandemic. Read on
Sales, however, appear to have “reached a trough,” Sondhi said. Though sales are expected to drop in 2023 on an annual basis, on a quarterly basis, they’ll record gains. Ontario and British Columbia will lead the growth, with sales expected to be stronger in the second half of the year. The TD report also predicted sales would stay “comparatively elevated” in the Prairies.
Still, the upswing in quarterly sales shouldn’t be interpreted as a “sign of strength” in the housing market, Sondhi said, with sales in Ontario and British Columbia coming in at levels not seen since the early 2000s. Sales might also get a further bump if wages continue to rise. Hourly wages were up 5.4 per cent year over year in February, according to Statistics Canada. Lower bond yields could also help bring down borrowing rates, improving affordability, TD said.Article content
Reports out this week from real estate boards in Toronto and Calgary indicated some life in housing markets.in March from February, with prices up 1.2 per cent. Year over year, sales and prices were down 37 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, showing the market still has a lot of ground to retrace.from the previous month, and were up almost one per cent from a year ago, according to that city’s real estate board.
Still, Sondhi noted the housing market faces headwinds, which could change the outlook. One “major” risk is possible tightening by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions of lending rules and stress test conditions for mortgage approvals. Another risk is stock market volatility. In March, banking-crisis fears following the failure of two mid-tier banks in the United States, brought turbulence to markets.
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