Political and economic volatility will continue in Africa in 2023: Although direct trade and financial links between Africa, Russia and Ukraine may be small, the main effect of the war will be civil strife in Africa driven by food and energy inflation
Africa’s economy was recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2022 when a range of internal and external shocks struck, such as adverse weather conditions, a devastating locust invasion, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
On average, the public sector debt-to-GDP ratio of African countries stood at above 60% in 2022. The era of Chinese state-backed big loans and mega-projects that started 20 years ago in Angola after the end of its civil war may be coming to an end, but Chinese private-sector investments on the continent will continue through its Belt and Road Initiative and its dual circulation model of development.
The US also launched a new strategy to strengthen its partnership and held a second US-Africa leaders’ summit in Washington in December. Russia’s ambitions have been curtailed by its invasion of Ukraine, postponing its second summit with African states to 2023.
Climate adaptation in Africa is a key condition to preserving economic growth and maintaining social cohesion. The Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia, is suffering from one of the worst droughts in memory. The geopolitical and geoeconomic ramifications of the Ukraine war has directly affected the African continent through contributing to food and cooking oil inflation and humanitarian aid delivery.
According to the UN, Rwanda has been supporting M23, and in November Kenya’s parliament approved the deployment of about 900 soldiers to the DRC as part of a joint military force from the East African Community bloc. The DRC joined the EAC in March.In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia saw an uneasy ceasefire agreed between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.
Three national elections illustrate the state of African democracy in 2022. In Angola’s August elections, the ruling MPLA lost its absolute majority, with the opposition Unita winning the majority in Luanda for the first time.
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