Ottawa’s singling\u002Dout the oil and gas sector for outsized emissions reductions may have a silver lining, writes Philip Cross. Read more.
If Canada chooses to substantially reduce its carbon footprint, it really has no option besides decarbonizing its fossil fuel supplies. There is no prospect that either hydro dams or wind and solar energy can expand enough over the next decade to meet the projected growth of electricity demand.
But there are gaping holes in the federal strategy to lower emissions. It makes no allowance for “carbon leakage,” in which reductions in Canada’s emissions are accomplished by importing goods from countries such as China where they are produced even more carbon-intensively. Nor does Canada receive credit for helping other countries lower their emissions by, for example, shifting their power plants to natural gas instead of coal. The target for emissions reduction has to be global, not national.
This is not to say Canadians will want to pursue decarbonization of either their production or consumption of fossil fuel. Canada’s emissions account for just 1.5 per cent of the global total . It would be understandable if Canadians increasingly questioned the sacrifice of their living standards even as emissions soar in emerging nations such as China and India. All major nations continue to struggle to come up with an effective plan to cut emissions while meeting energy demand. The U.S.
As the saying goes, no military plan survives contact with the enemy. The same is turning out to be true of government plans to reduce carbon emissions. The transition to lower emissions is proving to be more complicated than environmental advocates and government planners imagined. Decarbonizing fossil fuel production while continuing to consume them may be the best way to lower emissions while maintaining our standard of living.
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