Housing\u0027s hard stop spells trouble ahead for the economy, with those who purchased recently just the leading edge of a big problem. Read on.
Housing is like an economic funny bone. First and foremost, it’s likely the one asset in the system we can all relate to. Second, most of the average Canadian’s wealth is tied up in it. Third, there was a rush of home purchases in the past two years as prices surged and buyers feared getting left behind. Purchases at the peak — especially by first-time buyers — are the most vulnerable to a correction.
Numbers released on Jan. 16 by the Canadian Real Estate Association are sobering. Sales of existing dwellings fell 21 per cent in the second quarter of this year, then 14 per cent in the third and a further five per cent in the fourth to bring the year as a whole down by 38 per cent. True, this comes after an extraordinary surge in 2020-21, but sales levels are currently 16 per cent below the three-year pre-pandemic average.
New homebuilding activity seems to strongly disagree. In contrast to the United States market, housing starts in Canada are on a tear. Temporary factors might be the reason. Last year there was a highly unusual surge of non-permanent residents, a large portion of which were composed of Ukrainian immigrants fleeing war.
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Peter Hall: Housing's hard stop spells trouble ahead for the economyHousing\u0027s hard stop spells trouble ahead for the economy, with those who purchased recently just the leading edge of a big problem. Read on.
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Peter Hall: Housing's hard stop spells trouble ahead for the economyHousing\u0027s hard stop spells trouble ahead for the economy, with those who purchased recently just the leading edge of a big problem. Read on.
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