The same global pressures are set to hit many other countries, from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Egypt and Zimbabwe
London — As protesters stormed Sri Lanka’s presidential and prime ministerial residences on July 9 over shortages and economic crisis, social media users across the Middle East speculated whether their governments would be next — while markets braced for a shutdown in Russian gas to Europe and blocked crude oil exports from Kazakhstan.
Sri Lanka is now showing what that can mean, the price shock of the Ukraine war coming after a pandemic slump in tourism foreign currency earnings, a depreciating currency and now a debt default. Power cuts are frequent, there is too little fuel for many to get to work or school and the local UN humanitarian adviser estimates that almost a quarter of the population will now need international food assistance.
Energy disruptions may be next. On Monday, Russian gas to Germany through the Nordstream 1 pipeline fell to zero for 10 days of what operator Gazprom called “scheduled maintenance”. European authorities worry the shutdown may be permanent. On Sunday, French finance minister Bruno Le Maire said he believed this was the most likely option, and Europe should “put ourselves in order of battle as of now”.
But a host of other countries are in not dissimilar positions. In Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Argentina, Myanmar and Zimbabwe, those same global pressures and many local issues are also driving mounting hardships. As seen during the 2011 “Arab spring”, that can bring dramatic and unexpected political consequences.
Since the start of the war, Western and particularly mainland European nations talked openly about looking to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas for good, investing in renewables and other sources. But little of that activity has happened yet, and the giant underground caverns in Germany used as a strategic gas reserve to get that country through the winter remain only partially filled.Disrupting the oil pipeline from Kazakhstan might also be an easy win for Moscow.
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