As the United Rugby Championship heats up, Mark Keohane takes a look at the possibilities
Expand Francke Horn, of the Lions, scores a try during his team’s United Rugby Championship clash against Glasgow Warriors at Ellis Park in JohannesburgThe Bulls will ensure a home quarter-final with a win against Benetton in the final round of the United Rugby Championship.
The Stormers, having already qualified for a home quarter-final, will finish the league season second with a win against Cardiff. The Lions, riding high a week ago after a series of record-breaking wins at home, are fighting to make the top eight. They were third this time last week, but the Race to Eight is so congested that the running order from fourth to ninth could change significantly depending on results.
The Lions have never qualified for the play-offs, and the Stormers and Bulls have never missed the play-offs in the tournament’s five season history. The Lions must get at least a league point against Munster to make the play-offs, but a win could see them finish as high as fifth, or even fourth should the Bulls somehow lose to Benetton. The Italians were destroyed in Durban last weekend, beaten 41-7 by the Sharks, who cannot qualify for the last eight.
Neither can Benetton, who despite fielding 10 Italian Test players and former England flyhalf Jacob Umaga, were kept scoreless for 77 minutes in Durban. The Bulls, who won 54-19 against Zebre, are favourites to add another five league points and finish the league season with the swagger they started.
There was an awful slump midway through the season, but the Bulls have been near perfect in URC results over the past two months to ensure they will be a presence in the business end. There are permutations and ‘ifs and buts’ everywhere and each match will influence the final eight standings. The Bulls, who have played in three finals in the first four years — one at home and two away — have never won the title.
They were beaten by the Stormers in Cape Town in the first year, hosted Glasgow’s Warriors in year three and lost, and were hammered by Leinster in Dublin last year. The Stormers, winners of the inaugural title and runners-up the second year, when beaten at home by Ireland’s Munster, are aiming for a 13league win of the season.
It would be a club record and would put them in a position to potentially finish first, depending on what transpires with Glasgow’s match against Ulster. Ulster plays in the EPCR Challenge Cup final against Montpellier in a fortnight, and the talk was that they would sacrifice the final league match to prepare for the EPCR final.
However, with Connacht just one league point behind Ulster the Northern Ireland club could find themselves ending ninth if they don’t get any league points from their final match. If that happened and they lost the EPCR final, they would not qualify for the lucrative Investec Champions Cup next season. There are permutations and ‘ifs and buts’ everywhere and each match will influence the final eight standings. The Lions have been clear in their messaging.
They can’t look at any permutation or rely on other results to go their way. They simply must get something from their visit to Munster, a side beaten by Connacht a week ago and a club whose finances are a mess.
Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus this week named a 40-strong national alignment camp squad, to meet next week, and the final league matches will be vindication for many and an opportunity for a handful to still convince the Bok coach of their qualities.
Rugby United Rugby Championship Sprinboks Rassie Erasmus
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