Ottawa underestimating risk of 2023 recession, prolonged high interest rates: former BoC governor David Dodge

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Ottawa underestimating risk of 2023 recession, prolonged high interest rates: former BoC governor David Dodge
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In a new report released Monday, he warns the Liberals may have a hard time delivering on all their recent political commitments

The federal government is underestimating the risk of a 2023 recession and prolonged high interest rates, says former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge, who warns the Liberals may have a hard time delivering on all their recent political commitments.

In a new report released Monday by Bennett Jones and the Business Council of Canada, Mr. Dodge said the government’s most recent fiscal forecast - the Nov. 3 fall economic statement - now appears to be based on a “plausible but optimistic” set of assumptions about the economy and future interest rates.

“You’ve got to align what you’re promising with what you’re actually putting real resources behind,” Mr. Dodge said Monday in a briefing with journalists. A fiscal anchor is a target that guides the government’s overall spending plans. While previous Liberal and Conservative governments have used balanced budgets - such as maintaining a balance or aiming to erase the deficit by a specific date - the Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has used a different target: the debt-to-GDP ratio.

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