The Oscars would not be the Oscars if they were completely predictable. Which way will the Academy zag this year?
Which way will the Academy zag this year? Photo: Vulture and Courtesy of Studios Welcome to the most intense phase of this shortened awards season, when news piles up like so much dirty laundry. We could barely spend 24 hours digesting the Golden Globes results and WGA nominations before the “Super Tuesday” of precursor nominations brought a bevy of fresh story lines in a single workday.
Three movies have been nominated for the top prize by all the major guilds: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, and Parasite. Throw in Once Upon a Time, which was ineligible at the WGA, and 1917, the big winner from Globes night, and that feels like a solid top five. Acting vehicles Joker and Marriage Story — our top-two Oscar villains as recently as last week, though that’s probably changed — each have enough support to get in. That gets us to seven.
Our quartet of top directors has shown up everywhere so far, and as each of them has the auteur bona fides that appeal to this imposing bunch, I have a hard time envisioning any of them being left off. That leaves one spot for everyone else. Waititi is perhaps too much of an awards-season interloper for a branch that sees itself as a gatekeeper, while Baumbach feels likely to get the “Nice work, now run home to Screenplay” pat on the head.
On the Bubble: Awkwafina, The Farewell; Cynthia Erivo, Harriet; Lupita Nyong’o, Us; Saoirse Ronan, Little Women On the Bubble: Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy; Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood; Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes; Song Kang-ho, Parasite I nearly had a conniption when Once Upon a Time didn’t show up at the WGA nominations, before my co-workers helpfully reminded me that Quentin Tarantino is not a member of the guild. It should have no problem getting in at the Oscars, nor will its fellow Best Picture heavyweight Parasite or the cerebral Marriage Story. This category also feels like the perfect place to reward Rian Johnson’s intricately constructed whodunit Knives Out.
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