Opinion by By Catherine Rampell: Anyone who says they know for sure what’s going on with the U.S. economy is lying either to you or themselves.
, continue to befuddle many of us who are supposed to be professional economic-opinion-havers. So with a bit of humility, I’d like to present a series of questions on a common theme: What the heck is going on in this economy?Once again, unemployment tied a half-century low in April, and the net hiring number came in stronger than economists had forecast . In fact, in 12 of the past 13 months, the jobs numbers have beaten expectations. It’s not unusual for forecasts to be off.
But it is weird that they’re consistently off in the same direction — i.e., always underestimating the strength of the labor market.to this puzzle almost two months ago, including measurement issues, a general bias toward pessimism, longer-than-expected lags in consequences for monetary policy tightening, etc. I’m still not sure which of those hypotheses is right.
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