Opinion | We don’t know the most important fact in the world right now

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Opinion | We don’t know the most important fact in the world right now
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Opinion: We don’t know the most important fact in the world right now

Frieden expects a global fatality rate of less than 1 percent. Even if he is right, a great deal hinges onThere could be a huge difference in total deaths, globally, depending on whether the virus is as deadly as the seasonal flu, with its roughly 0.1 percent mortality rate, or the H1N1 virus of 2009, which killed in just 0.02 percent of infections, according toTo complicate matters, that updated fatality rate for H1N1 is much lower than the 1.0 percent to 1.

A modern world that has learned to expect information, instantly, for free, must adapt to the realization that the one fact it really needs to know, right now, cannot be had at any price.And from that flows a great river of uncertainty. We can’t know the true risks of the virus, so we can’t estimate with confidence the costs and benefits of alternative public health responses — much less the potential economic repercussions and the right way to cope with those.

This moment of radical uncertainty is frightening, humbling — and an occasion to reflect on the advantages as well as, yes, the limitations of governing based on facts and data.Obviously we want leaders who are both open to valid information and expert opinion, and capable of processing it. President Trump lies all the time about large matters and small; he embraces conspiracy theories and disinformation, much of which comes his way from murky quarters of the Internet.

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