Opinion | Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation

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Opinion | Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation
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From WSJopinion: A grand economic experiment is under way. Can the Federal Reserve contain inflation without raising interest rates much higher than they are now? asks JohnHCochrane.

Journal Editorial Report: Voters may not like the threat of IRS audits. Images: Getty Images/CNP via ZUMA Press Wire Composite: Mark KellyA grand economic experiment is under way. Can the Federal Reserve contain inflation without raising interest rates much higher than they are now?

Conventional wisdom says that as long as interest rates are below the rate of inflation, inflation will rise. Inflation in July was 8.5%, measured as the one-year change in the consumer price index. The Fed has raised the federal funds rate only from 0.08% in March to 2.33% in August. According to the conventional view, that isn’t nearly enough. Higher rates are needed, now.

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