Azerbaijan’s blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh is a disaster waiting to happen, unless we act now
to redress its failure of three decades earlier. Through 44 days of war, Azerbaijan recaptured not only the seven provinces it had lost, but one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, including the fortress city of Shushi. Russian peacekeepers were deployed to the remaining Armenian-controlled territory to maintain a fragile ceasefire, but Azerbaijan and its President, Ilham Aliyev, were not satisfied.
Russia has traditionally been the main international powerbroker in the Karabakh conflict: It ruled the area for nearly two centuries, and maintains powerful leverage over a region that has long been peripheral for the West. Russia’s 2,000-strong peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh, as well as long-standing military bases in Armenia, reflects that.Ukraine has faltered – leaving Russia internationally isolated and draining its resources – Azerbaijan has sought to take advantage.
, naming it alongside Taiwan and Ukraine as “one of the forefronts … of the struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.” While that effort helped forestall greater violence on the territory of Armenia, there has been little indication that the U.S. is willing to take the sorts of measures required to halt Azerbaijan’s siege of Karabakh. Expressions of concern do not seem sufficient to put an end to the blockade this time.
The current struggle threatens to draw in other major regional players as well. Chief among these is Turkey, which supported Azerbaijan openly in the 2020 war and has backed it strongly ever since.
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