As the Democrats battle for the 2020 nomination, a recurrent theme has cropped up: Who can excite the base and drive turnout in November. History shows the candidate may not be the deciding factor, writes Joshua Spivak.
As the Democrats battle for the 2020 nomination, a recurrent theme has cropped up: Who can excite the base and drive turnout in November.Sen. Elizabeth Warren , former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders participate in the Democratic presidential primary debate at Drake University on January 14, 2020 in Des Moines, Iowa.As the Democrats battle for the 2020 nomination, a recurrent theme has cropped up: Who can excite the base and drive turnout in November.
Compare one of the most charismatic candidates in US history with one of the least. Republican Theodore Roosevelt was pure excitement, while his Republican successor, William Howard Taft, was the polar opposite. And yet, turnout was higher for Taft's 1908 election than Roosevelt in 1904, and Taft and Roosevelt had almost the exact same total vote in their respective elections.
Looking forward one election, we see another drop in turnout. One of the most exciting races in US history happened in 1912 when four notable candidates faced off in November. Taft ran as a Republican, Roosevelt as a Progressive , and the popular Woodrow Wilson as a Democrat, along with prominent Socialist Eugene Debs.
History shows turnout ebbs and flows and the reasons are not clear. Charisma, or at least our post-facto view, may have less impact than imagined. For example, Ronald Reagan, arguably the last president to win a real blowout, had unimpressive turnouts. The 1976 Jimmy Carter/Gerald Ford race had a higher turnout ratio than either of Reagan's victories. Bill Clinton's triumph in 1992 also was higher.
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