OP-ED: Writing the 2019 Election: Personalities, time and money prevent the beating of the ANC By Ismail Lagardien
and the availability of private money. And then there is time. It is probably too late, now — four weeks before the poll — to come together and put into operation whatever electoral coalitions they may agree on.There are several big issues that are exploited in different ways by all political parties.
In South Africa, today, and for a range of justifications, whites, people of Indian heritage and descent, white Afrikaners and non-Africans, in general, are identified as the cause of all problems that beset the country. A leftist election coalition would be a disaster. Who will lead such a coalition? Will Julius Malema give his seat to Andile Mngxitama or Irwin Jim? Will Mngxitama accept Malema’s leadership? It’s hard to tell. But we can imagine…
It’s hard to see Aunty Pat in a coalition with the DA, or anyone taking Motsoeneng seriously. Apart from the religion bits, the ACDP may be quite comfortable with the free market fundamentalism of the ZACP. We could go on and on, but let’s get to some of the possible stumbling blocks.Based purely on the numbers, if small parties get together to form electoral coalitions they still have no chance of unseating the ANC. That is based only on 2014 numbers, with some accounting for ANC losses.
One can see money going to a middle-to-right coalition, but the most basic calculations may show this formation only as a viable opposition. This means you put your money on the winner, and some money on the opposition to add to the checks and balances that will keep the government on the right side of the law.
While the state authorities have failed to fully investigate any wrongdoings by Malema and his deputy, Floyd Shivambu, there are very many questions that abound. There remain questions around their respective roles in Limpopo, tax avoidance, allegations of graft and rent-seeking, somatic and other violence and the rhetoric of revenge and recrimination. Unless any leftist can look past that, the EFF may not make a good electoral coalition partner.
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