Infection with a pre-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant protects against reinfection with a second, although the effect fades almost completely after three years.
on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines suggest that protection against the virus SARS-CoV-2 decreases over time, waning considerably after six months. To learn about the course of naturally acquired immunity, the authors examined COVID-19 data gathered in Qatar between 28 February 2020 and 5 June 2022. “Our study is the first to have such a long time of follow-up,” says co-author Hiam Chemaitelly, an epidemiologist also at Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar.
Pre-Omicron infection was only 38% effective at preventing infection by an Omicron variant in the first 6 months after Omicron emerged. Modelling suggests that the number will drop to 10% at 15 months. Other potential caveats exist. The authors’ projections assume that the immune response changes at a specific rate, when in fact that rate depends on the length of time since a person caught the virus, says Crotty. Therefore, immune responses measured at one point in time might not allow accurate predictions of the future.
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