The world feared the worst when a worrying new coronavirus variant emerged in late November and ripped through South Africa at a pace not seen before in the pandemic.
But two months later, with Omicron dominant across much of the globe, the narrative has shifted for some.
"My own view is that it's becoming endemic, and it will continue to stay endemic for some time -- as has happened with other coronaviruses," said David Heymann, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
And for the first time since the spread of Covid-19 stunned the world in early 2020, some epidemiologists and leaders are willing to entertain the prospect that the virus might be making steps toward endemic status.The question that scientists and wider society will grapple with throughout 2022 is when Covid-19 will leave its current stage and enter endemicity.
That's why Omicron's reduced severity is so key -- it adds an extra layer of immunity, but doesn't come with the same risk of hospitalization that Covid-19 held for most of last year. Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of hospitalization compared to Delta, according to a Scottish study. A separate paper from South Africa put the same figure at 80%.
"People have reinterpreted 'Russian flu' in the late 19th century as the emergence of a common cold-type coronavirus," added Woolhouse, referring to the 1889-90 outbreak that is estimated to have killed around a million people, but which ultimately became a common cold. "I would hope that that's the case," Fauci told the Davos Agenda, a virtual event this week held by the World Economic Forum, mirroring the cautious optimism that many epidemiologists are expressing. He added that the world was"fortunate" that Omicron didn't share more of Delta's characteristics.
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who presided over one of the West's most effective vaccination rollouts, told radio station Cadena Ser earlier this month that it's time"to evaluate the evolution of Covid from pandemic to an endemic illness." His health minister said she has put that viewpoint to fellow European Union leaders.
Many countries are starting to act as if Covid is already endemic. England resisted new restrictions despite record-breaking infection figures in recent weeks, and though hospitalizations and deaths have risen, its health care sector appears to have survived the peak of the Omicron wave without recording the high admissions seen during previous variants.
"Clearly taking people out of the workforce -- particularly schools and healthcare -- is one costly impact," of Omicron, Hale said."Of course it is preferable to prevent widespread transmission in the first place, though for many countries now facing Omicron this point is now moot." The problem with that approach, many warn, is that some parts of the world are less able to take on a relaxed approach.
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