NOAA Launches New Hurricane Forecast Model As Atlantic Season Starts Strong
Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 showed a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to NOAA’s existing hurricane models. HAFS is expected to continue increasing forecast accuracy, therefore reducing storm impacts to lives and property.
Over the next four years, HAFS will undergo several major upgrades, ultimately leading to even more increased accuracy of forecasts, warnings and life-saving information. An objective of the offsite link is, by 2027, to reduce all model forecast errors by nearly half compared to errors seen in 2017. “With the introduction of the HAFS forecast model into our suite of tropical forecasting tools, our forecasters are better equipped than ever to safeguard lives and property with enhanced accuracy and timely warnings,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “HAFS is the result of strong collaborative efforts throughout the science community and marks significant progress in hurricane prediction.
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