A new USGS study indicates some areas on the Hawaiian Islands, especially on the Island of Hawaiʻi and neighboring islands with active volcanic activity, have a 90% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking from an earthquake in the next century.
Earthquakes are often associated with volcanic activity and, therefore, monitoring current volcanic activity is important as it could lead to large earthquakes., shows a 90% chance that the 345,000 people on the islands of Hawai’i and Maui could experience damaging levels of shaking during the next 100 years.
“The previous hazard model was developed over 20 years ago and since that time we have experienced several large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and have collected deformation, soil, and strong motion data that can be used to improve this forecast,” said Mark Petersen, USGS research geophysicist and lead author of the publication. “We collaborated with scientists and engineers across Hawaii and the rest of the U.S. to build these models.
The map and publication feature new earthquake catalogs, assessments of activity on active faults using geologic and geodetic measurements, and evaluations of strong shaking data to define the ground shaking levels expected from earthquakes on the Hawaiian Islands.Figure 2. Earthquake sources on the Island of Hawaii include locations of shallow Quaternary faults , locations of places where deep faults are known , and locations of volcanoes .
Ground shaking is forecasted to be highest near the active volcanos of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa in the southernmost portion of the Island of Hawai‘i . Here magmatic activity pushes the crust outward toward the ocean along a nearly horizontal fault located about 6 miles beneath the surface. Large earthquakes occurred on this zone in
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