A week after former Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his independent bid for the presidency, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggests that his impact on the 2024 election could be smaller than initially predicted — or feared.
The survey of 1,675 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Oct. 12 to Oct. 16, found that Kennedy’s presence in the race made no measurable difference in President Biden’s slim lead over former President Donald Trump.
In a three-way race, Trump’s lead among independents shrinks by 2 points, his lead among Republicans shrinks by 4 points, and Biden’s lead among Democrats shrinks by 3 points.To be sure, 9% — which would translate into the most votes for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992 — is nothing to sneeze at. In a polarized political climate in which presidential elections hang on just a handful of ballots in a handful of battleground states, every vote could conceivably make a difference.
of those currently planning to vote for Kennedy than the latter," explains YouGov pollster Mark Blumenthal, who partners with Yahoo News on its surveys.
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