Geopolitics played a role in the anti-independence campaign. The Pacific territory has around a tenth of the world’s nickel reserves. The metal accounts for 90% of exports, mostly to Asia
but a collapse in turnout—the 44% of eligible voters who showed up amounting to barely more than half the 86% at the previous ballot in October 2020. Thehad argued for a delay to the poll after a recent Delta wave that killed one in 1,000 residents, mostly Pacific Islanders. A perception that delaying the vote would boost the odds of independence no doubt played a role in the’s call for postponement, too.
The French government dismissed the turnout as legally irrelevant. In the past, it had presented itself as a neutral arbiter in the dispute between the territory’s loyalist and pro-independence politicians. This time was different. A 100-page government document released before the poll warned of dire economic consequences if New Caledonia seceded.
Geopolitics played a role in the anti-independence campaign, too. New Caledonia has around a tenth of the world’s nickel reserves. The metal accounts for 90% of exports, mostly to Asia. Loyalist parties argued that an independent New Caledonia would become a Chinese vassal state. Mr Macron hopes that the result will render the Nouméa Accord void, ending what he calls the “binary choice” between independence and staying part of France. “We must now build a common project, while recognising and respecting the dignity of everyone,” he said. Yet key elements of the devolved structure agreed on in the accord, including a power-sharing agreement between the loyalist and pro-independence parties, will remain in place.
Pro-independence parties, for their part, refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of the latest ballot. They have shunned Mr Lecornu’s post-referendum overtures for negotiations for a new political settlement, though these, too, are required under the Nouméa Accord. In the background lurks the impending contest for the French presidency. Until then, Mr Macron is likely to be in no mood for concessions.
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