LONDON: For the first time ever, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday (May 17). But that did not necessarily mean the world would cross the long-term warming thresh
Partially responsible for boosting the chance of hitting 1.5 degrees Celsius is an El Niño weather pattern expected to develop in the coming months. During this natural phenomenon, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures.
The El Niño"will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory", said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a press statement. Still, the likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius has increased over time. Between 2017 and 2021, for example, scientists estimated just a 10 per cent chance of hitting 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Unlike the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's climate projections which are based on future greenhouse gas emissions, the WMO update provides more of a prediction-based long-range weather forecast. The WMO also found a 98 per cent chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, surpassing 2016 which saw global temperature impacted by about 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming.
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