WHO Europe has forecast just over 27,000 monkeypox cases in 88 countries by Aug. 2, up from 17,800 cases in nearly 70 countries at the latest count
Making predictions beyond that are complex, scientists around the world told Reuters, but there is likely to be sustained transmission for several months and possibly longer, they said.
A majority of committee members voted against the move and, in an unprecedented step, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared an emergency anyway. Jimmy Whitworth, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said he expected that cases would not plateau for at least the next four-to-six months, or until the those at highest risk of infection have been either vaccinated or infected. Sexual health organizations recently estimated that could be around 125,000 people in the UK.
Beyond Africa, monkeypox is spreading chiefly in men who have sex with men, putting sexual health clinics on alert for new cases. Flahault’s group has modelled three scenarios for the coming months, all of which include “sustained transmission,” either between men who have sex with men; beyond these groups and possibly into more vulnerable populations, like children, or between humans and animals.
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