The latest statistical models show a glimmer of hope, forecasting fewer deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus pandemic before August. But there’s uncertainty in these models because health officials are still trying to get a handle on how the virus acts.
April 7, 2020 GMT
SEATTLE — A statistical model cited by the White House generated a slightly less grim figure Monday for a first wave of deaths from the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. — a projection designed to help officials plan for the worst, including having enough hospital staff, beds and ventilators. The latest calculations are based on better data on how the virus acts, more information on how people act and more cities as examples. For example, new data from Italy and Spain suggest social distancing is working even better than expected to stop the spread of the virus.
Then factor in everything we know about how people are reacting, social distancing, stay-at-home orders and other squishy human factors. “No model is perfect, but most models are somewhat useful,” said John Allen Paulos, a professor of math at Temple University and author of several books about math and everyday life. “But we can’t confuse the model with reality.”
Most models use calculus to factor in “things you can’t predict,” Meyer said. To her, they are simple equations, ones that a person who knows advanced calculus can figure out. To the rest of the world, it’s Greek. Literally full of sigmas, phis, omegas and other symbols.
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