Expectations that the Constitutional Court’s recent ruling on independent candidates may give the majority of voters a stronger voice are premature and largely unwarranted.
Would most South Africans’ lives change if the way in which Parliament and provincial legislatures are elected changes? Commentators who have reacted to the Constitutional Court’s ruling that independent candidates must be able to stand for election to Parliament and provincial legislatures insist that it will. But the ruling may make little difference. And, if it does usher in change, there is no guarantee it will give most voters, who live in poverty, any more say.
At present, parties win seats in the National Assembly for each 0.25% of the vote they win . In the 2019 general election, about 30 000 votes were needed to win a seat.If independent candidates won this share of the vote or less, there would be no need to change the system: if they managed to win a seat, they would be awarded it as if they were a party. It is unlikely that any independents would win more than the votes needed for one seat.
Wouldn’t allowing independents to stand in this way mean very long ballot papers? Not if they are subjected to the same rules as parties – in particular, the requirement that they fork out R200 000 for a national election or R40 000 for each province. This rule explains why this country has over 200 parties but only a few contest elections. Parliament might even increase these deposits to make it harder to stand.
Ironically, it may be a plus for most voters that new election rules would not change much. This country’s debate is for insiders only – people who earn a wage or salary. So when the insiders say they want a more accountable system, they mean one more accountable to them. That does not mean it would be more accountable to people living in poverty.
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