Joseph Adinolfi is a markets reporter at MarketWatch.
Investors have been on the lookout for a weakening labor market since the Federal Reserve embarked back in March 2022 on its most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the 1980s.
Slok used a simple statistical model to project that rising layoffs will soon manifest in weekly jobless claims data, which tracks the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits on a weekly basis. That came on the heels of monthly data from the Labor Department showing the U.S. economy added 336,000 new jobs in September, far surpassing the forecast of 170,000. While the pace of wage growth, seen as a key input into inflation, slowed, jobs data from prior months were revised higher, breaking a streak of downward revisions.
The S&P 500 SPX has rallied nearly 14% in 2023, but the large-cap benchmark has set back since its late July high as Treasury yields moved quickly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is up 2.5% in the year to date.
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