Markets on heightened alert leading up to US presidential election

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Markets on heightened alert leading up to US presidential election
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Vice-President Harris and former president Trump have opposing views on key economic issues.

Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris and Republican opponent Donald Trump. The outcome of the US presidential election will impact market sentiment.This is understandable as the results will have policy implications not just for the US, but also the whole world.

In Singapore, the Straits Times Index ended down 1.3 per cent for the week at 3,593.41 as it remained entrenched in its consolidation zone during the week, supporting the 3,580s after opening at a high of 3,640.28 in the week.The iEdge S-Reit Index lost 3 per cent, while the trio of banks declined 0.7 per cent.

The CME Fed Fund Tool has seen expectations trimmed from 77 per cent to 71 per cent for a total of 50 basis points cut across the Nov 7 and Dec 18 Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The longer-dated benchmark 10-year UST yield has risen significantly in the past month or so, from its recent low of 3.62 per cent on Sept 16. It is about 4.2 per cent now, translating into a 60-basis point move in the yield over a short space of time. This is a source of concern for investors.

Some economists say Trump’s policies could make the world poorer, with tariffs potentially shaving 0.7 per cent off global growth, raising inflation and causing more geopolitical tension. Although these numbers are backwards-looking and predate the barrage of stimulus measures that have been announced since then, they do raise hope that things are not spiralling further downwards.

However, for the moment, the market’s rise seems to be underpinned by exuberance of rate cuts and the prospect of a US economic soft landing. “We have seen the 10-year UST yield rise and stay above the 4 per cent handle for six months this year, between February and July, but it came off and fell below 4 per cent after the US Treasury Department reduced its third-quarter estimate for federal borrowing on July 29 to US$740 billion from a previous prediction of US$847 billion.”

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