Despite Eskom's improved energy availability factor (EAF) in 2024, energy expert Mohamed Madhi predicts the return of load-shedding in 2025. While Eskom's performance has been positive, factors like economic recovery and peak demand could impact the grid's reliability.
Energy expert Mohamed Madhi believes South Africa could see the return of load-shedding in 2025, even if Eskom sustained its improved performance. Eskom ’s generation division unexpectedly boosted the average energy availability factor (EAF) of its power station fleet to around 60% in 2024, compared with roughly 55% in 2023.On average, it had over 2,000MW more capacity available in 2024, roughly the same amount of power shed during two stages of load-shedding.
, the power utility’s spokesperson, Daphne Mokwena, said if Eskom’s EAF reached 70%, it would officially mean the end of load-shedding. She explained Eskom would then have reached a point where its availability exceeded peak demand during the winter, when its grid experienced significant strain.It would have to drastically improve the figure to reach its target of 65% average EAF for its financial year ending March 2025, never mind hitting 70%. Madhi told MyBroadband that it was definitely too early to predict the end of load-shedding, even if Eskom’s performance improvements continued. He stressed two other key reasons Eskom was able to keep the lights on in 2024 — behind-the-meter rooftop solar installations and a slowdown in economic activity. While rooftop solar could continue reducing the country’s reliance on peaking power stations during the day, an economic recovery could impact Eskom’s ability to provide reliable electricity. Reduced business activity — particularly mining and factory operations — significantly reduced peak and average demand on Eskom’s grid. According to Eskom’s system status update for Week 49 of 2024, the utility recorded annual energy demand of 189,630GWh between 1 January and 8 December 2024. This was about 3% lower than over the same period in 2023. The highest peak demand in 2024 was also around 1,000MW lower than in 2023, which already had a 1,000MW lower peak than 202
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