Messi's arrival in Miami has changed the MLS math. Inter Miami, the worst team in MLS and 14 points out of playoff spot, now is tied for the second-best odds to win MLS Cup.
Obviously, there’s a bit of a Messi Tax situation involved here. Bettors are going to be betting on Messi and his team to do well. But it’s hard to argue with Messi, Busquets, and Alba completely changing Miami’s fortunes. After all, they haven’t lost with the trio in uniform.MLS predictions forecast
on June 13, a few weeks before Messi came to America. Miami had the worst goal differential in the league and just 15 points. The Herons were projected to finish the season with 32 points and the FiveThirtyEight model gave Miami a 4% chance to make the playoffs and a 48% chance to finish at the bottom of the conference.
Miami’s 6/1 odds at BetMGM to win MLS Cup translates to an implied probability of 14.3% to win the title.Despite having zero MLS goals , Messi was the favorite Thursday morning at BetMGM to finish the regular season with the most goals despite the leader, Hany Mukhtar, having a 13-goal head start.Lionel Messi :
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