A recent critique wrongly pointed to the survey as a sentiment indicator
The sudden, once-in-a-century Covid-19 shock presents unique challenges. In response to such temporary events, knee-jerk changes to well-established surveys based on global best practice would be a disservice to data users. That said, survey processes and methodologies are reviewed regularly.
The Absa PMI was critiqued last week by Econometrix and ETM, which referred to it as “broken” and “misspecified” The critique also implied misspecification of the BER “model”. To be clear, the PMI survey is not based on any model. The PMI is a monthly, coincident cyclical activity indicator. Therefore, as is the case with the SA Reserve Bank’s coincident business cycle indicator, it includes an employment measure and excludes prices.
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