'Deadly skirmishes' between Iran and the U.S. are a risk in 2020, but the scale of the threat posed by Tehran could be overexaggerated, according to Eurasia Group.
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While they acknowledged that Iran was indeed a geopolitical risk, Bremmer and Kupchan claimed that "neither"The failure of U.S. policy toward Iran, Iraq, and Syria creates significant risks for regional stability," the authors said. "These include a lethal conflict with Iran upward pressure on oil prices."
"The new 'axis of evil' — Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Syria — is unlikely to blow up in 2020, despite the headlines," they said. "Iran represents the biggest threat, but neither Trump nor Tehran wants all-out war."Among other risks for global investors and market participants, the U.S. election was identified by Eurasia as the biggest threat for 2020.
"Either scenario would create months of lawsuits and a political vacuum, but unlike the contested Bush-Gore 2000 election, the loser is unlikely to accept a court-decided outcome as legitimate," they speculated.Another key risk this year would be the "decoupling" of the American and Chinese technology sectors, according to Eurasia.
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