Lessons From The “Living Without Russian Gas Miracle”
did not occur, fitting a pattern of overestimating the negative consequences of strict environmental policy measures. This is slowing down the green transition. Policy assessments need to be independent from business interests to remove this unjustified brake
Overestimating the costs and consequences of environmental policies is a recurring pattern. This has been shown for many cases, such as the ban on ‘ozone layer depruleting substances’ , the US Clean Air Act and the cost of solar energy.[2] The gap between predicted and real costs is on average around a factor of two to four, thus posing a large unjustified brake on the green transition.
Effective environmental policies inevitably result in higher prices for energy, transport, and some materials. These higher prices create positive surprises by increasing efficiency and shifting consumption in a more sustainable direction.
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