The clashing data and projections highlight the uncertainty U.S. leaders will face in coming months as they grapple with how to reopen the country.
forecasting model — used by the White House — predicted Friday that some states may be able to ease social distancing restrictions and reopen as early as May 4.
what they call flaws in the IHME model and analysis showing instances in which IHME’s projections have fallen short of reality. President Trump has repeatedly declared he wants states reopened as soon as possible, declaring in back-to-back tweets Friday: “LIBERATE MINNESOTA,” “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA.” Also Friday, the governors of Texas and Vermont announced dates for easing certain restrictions.
Murray said his IHME modelers tried to include such factors in their models but could not find data that could be used empirically. Instead, they decided to use the 1 infection per 1 million cutoff with the assumption that, at that low level, states would be more readily able to do the necessary testing and contact tracing.Many epidemiologists and modelers have expressed growing concern over the IHME model.
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