Manufacturing and trade reports Tuesday confirmed that GDP is on pace to rise more than 2% for the fourth quarter.
showing that a manufacturing contraction had not spread to the much larger services component of the U.S. economy.
However, the services reading showed that "the vast majority of American industries are not being held back by the swirling winds of geopolitical uncertainty and makes us more confident that the recession forecasts of some ... will not be realized," Rupkey said.One big positive for sentiment is the likely resolution, at least on a first-phase basis, of the trade dispute.
"It appears that firms have responded immediately, and positively, to the news that the Phase One trade deal would prevent the imposition of further tariffs on consumer goods," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. On the other hand, that, too, could be a cosmetic change as a rise in imports could come from stronger consumer demand.
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