Looking for long shot picks in this year's Kentucky Derby? Historical data says pay attention to these five factors.
Nowhere in sports is the gap bigger between casual fans and alleged betting experts than in horse racing, specifically the Kentucky Derby. On one hand, one of every eight American adults is likely to plunk down a wager on the Run for the Roses. And when the most important factor in making those bets, a combined 45% said hunches, marketing promotions, and, that’s right, a horse’s name.
, a subsidiary of Churchill Downs that compiles racing data, assigns style ratings to horses. It turns out that three-fourths of this century’s Derby winners were graded “E” by Brisnet for “Early” or “E/P” for “Early/Presser.” These are horses that either like to set the pace for races or run second or third — or at least within a few lengths of the leader — before challenging for first place. Again, Rich Strike, who came out of nowhere two years ago, might seem like an exception.
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