For the most part inflation is being driven by rising energy and transportation costs
Global shipping congestion continues to disrupt supply chains, adding to retail costs. Picture: DAVID RYDER/BLOOMBERG
To be sure, there have been some specific Covid-related supply-chain disruptions that have led to narrow inflation. For the most part, however, inflation is being driven by rising energy and transportation costs. By contrast, retail sales in Europe are up just 4%. Likewise, in Antwerp and Rotterdam congestion rates were just more than 20% in October.That difference is reflected in the inflation rate. In the eurozone, prices were up only 3% year on year in September, compared with 5.4% in the US. Moreover, core inflation was up only 1.6% in the eurozone, compared with 4% in the US.
Over the past eight months, in fits and starts, demand has picked up. But with little clarity about future demand, drillers have found it difficult to find financing. Only now that oil has passed $70 per barrel has the rig count turned upwards. It will take some time to fully rebuild operations, but the limiting factor was and remains demand uncertainty.
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