John Curtice warns Tory vote has 'unravelled' in 2022 - and is unlikely to recover 🔴 Exclusive from HugoGye
The Conservatives’ voting bloc has “unravelled” as Labour powered to a Tony Blair-style polling lead over the course of 2022, elections guru Sir John Curtice has warned., the leading political academic showed that the Tories had plunged to a 31-point deficit at the depths of the Truss era before making a modest recovery after Rishi Sunak took power.
In August, after Mr Johnson resigned, the Labour lead grew to 10 points – then a gulf began to open up in September, with Labour climbing to 47 per cent and the Conservatives falling to 27 per cent. He said that the volatility seen in this year’s polls was “not unprecedented”, with 2019 also producing wild swings in voting intention – but Sir John added that that year saw Labour as well as the Tories slump in the polls. He said that this year Labour is “in a stronger position than at any time since it was turfed out office in 2010 and redolent of the kind of poll leads that the party enjoyed in the years leading up to the 1997 election”.
Sir John said: “Boris Johnson was able to turn around his party’s fortunes in 2019 by winning the support of Leave voters who were saying they would back the Brexit Party. But that always potentially fragile coalition has largely unravelled.” Rather, the eventual downfall of Boris Johnson in the summer was followed by a leadership contest during which Labour’s lead grew, produced a winner whose election failed to give her party any bounce in the polls, and whose “fiscal event” on 23 September produced turmoil in the markets and a dramatic further dop in her party’s popularity.
However, on that occasion most of the damage was being done by the Brexit Party, and at, just 28 per cent in the polls, Labour were in just as much trouble. Although there has been a small increase in support for Reform UK in the last couple of months, this time around it is Labour who have primarily profited from the Conservatives’ misfortune.
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