New World Disorder: Population aging over the next decade is very predictable\u003B less predictable will be the public policy response to the eventual labour…
Labour markets will be tight for years to come, which will fuel inflation. With falling national saving rates, the saving glut and low real interest rates that have spurred investment will disappear. Like Japan in recent years, GDP growth will stall in many high- and middle-income countries, as more people leave the workforce. Unless productivity remarkably improves, annual GDP growth will fall below 1.
As seniors grow as a share of the world population, some countries will experience a labour boom as their numerous young people enter the workforce. Age dependency — young people and seniors as a percentage of the population between 15 and 64 years of age — will drop dramatically in the least-developed economies: from 75 per cent in 2020, to 66 per cent in 2035, contrary to trends in the rest of the world.
Canada’s workforce is also rapidly aging. By 2035, there will be five working Canadians for every two retirees. People are living longer, but they are also ill for longer periods with diseases like dementia. Many low-income Canadians will not have sufficient resources to cover their living costs, putting pressure on governments to provide more subsidized health care, long-term care and pension support.
In 2007, before the financial crisis, four million people migrated to Europe, Oceania and North America, primarily from Asia, the Caribbean and Latin America. That has steadily dropped, to 2.3 million today. Fewer Chinese people are migrating to other countries, dropping from over 439,000 in 2007 to 200,000 in 2021. Likewise, fewer migrants are moving to G7 countries — net migration fell from 2.7 million in 2007, to 1.4 million in 2021.
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