The issue that is most worrying Tory MPs this week is small boats
Could the Conservatives be saying ‘so long’ to Sunak? Photographer: WPA Pool Provider: Getty Images Source: Getty Images Europe Copyright: Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
But that is now dead in the water. Some people in government stress that they always thought the ultimate decision could be made in the Supreme Court – regardless of what happened in the Court of Appeal. But the problems for Sunak are twofold. The fact that the Court of Appeal found against them appears to raise the chance of the Supreme Court following suit.
At that point there isn’t much time for any deterrent effect to kick in – which is the main point of the scheme and why ministers argue it is worth the money despite an economic impact assessment this week suggesting it could cost £169,000 per person to send asylum seekers to Rwanda. Minsters also need the Illegal Migration Bill – which this week was defeated by peers in the House of Lords on amendments – to pass into law in order to get the scheme up and running at scale.
Perversely there are some who can see the upside, too, in a Supreme Court defeat: it would put pressure on Sunak to leave the European Convention on Human Rights . MPs on the right of the party argue this is the only way to really control the country’s borders – with more MPs publicly calling on Sunak to do so this week, after the verdict. MPs on the left of the party – particularly on the One Nation wing – are horrified by the prospect.
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