What Israel intends to do if and when it has secured the northern half of Gaza is not clear. Read more at straitstimes.com.
Not counting periodic cross-border skirmishes, Israel has fought three major wars against Hamas since withdrawing its forces from Gaza in 2005 – in 2008, 2014 and 2021. Each involved limited ground incursions, with Israeli soldiers in Gaza for about a fortnight.Hamas cross-border attacks that killed around 1,400 Israelis on Oct 7.
It is a truism that wars have unintended consequences. And in the current conflict with Hamas, it is not clear what the end game might be for Israel.The difficulties of a Gaza ground assault are clear enough. Fighting street to street in a confined, highly urbanised environment will be hideously difficult for Israel’s forces. Hamas also has the advantage of an extensive tunnel network estimated to be 500km in length, enabling its militants to attack and then disappear.
Inevitably, there will be appalling civilian casualties. Not all will necessarily be the IDF’s fault, but the default position of the region and those in the global community opposed to Israel’s action will be to blame Israel. Second, eliminate Hamas’ senior leadership, declare victory, then leave. Such a victory would almost certainly be short term. Other low-level members of Hamas would take pride in coming forward to reconstitute the group. Or another group, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, might fill the vacuum. Israel would not be able to control who or what that entity might be.
Sixth, administration of Gaza by a non-Arab or UN force. Given the enormous risks, it is very hard to see any non-Arab countries embracing this idea. A UN peacekeeping force would require not only Israeli approval, but also a UN Security Council resolution at a time when Russia and China rarely agree with the three Western permanent members of the council.
Gaza’s population is also incredibly young, with a median age of 19.6, compared with the global average of 30.5. Almost half the adult population is unemployed, and Palestinians in Gaza are four times more likely to be living in poverty than those in the West Bank. This is a recipe for social upheaval and radicalisation.Will Hamas in 2023 go the way of Tamil Tigers in 2009?
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