ISAAH MHLANGA: Hope for a V-shaped recovery, but prepare for W or even L 🔒
Economic statistics could become unreliable across the world due to the various lockdowns’ effect on contact surveys by statistical agencies and the inaccessibility of households and firms.
The pace of change in the economic environment is unprecedented, such that if one forgets to press the send button for a day after a forecasting exercise that forecast will be outdated and require revision. With this fast-changing economic environment, combined with unreliable economic statistics, forecasting will move from difficult to less useful and perhaps dangerous for both policymakers and business leaders. A scenario analysis approach could be more useful to manage the risk going forward.
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